Sunday, 26 October 2025

Tobacco prohibition and public opinion

FOREST have released the results of a survey they commissioned to gauge support for the generational tobacco ban that is the centrepiece of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill. The majority of respondents are, quite sensibly, against it. 59% of respondents said that people aged 18 or over should be allowed to buy tobacco.

Opinion polls are notorious for using leading questions, and people who respond to surveys are (a) easily swayed (b) afflicted by social desirability bias and (c) unlikely to think about second order consequences. It could be argued that the question above primes people to agree with adults being able to do things by listing some other things adults can do. But the survey also asked a question that is about as neutral as it could be. It describes what the government is planning and asked if they agree with it. Only 35% of respondents did, although note that support for people being allowed to buy tobacco at the age of 18 drops to 25% when they are offered the alternative of a 21 year age limit. 
 
 
People also understand that prohibition, even if introduced gradually, fuels the black market.
 

 And they can understand why smokers' tax morale is at rock bottom.
 
 
When the state-funded prohibitionists at ASH commission studies, they find majority support for the generational ban. How do they do it? Actually, it's not clear how they do it because they don't always publish the wording of their surveys. In May, they announced that their YouGov survey found "overwhelming public support for a bold smokefree future" and that "two-thirds of the public (68%) back the ‘Smokefree Generation’ policy". 
 
But the report ASH published did not give the wording of the question. All it said was that people "support the Smokefree Generation". If all they were asked was whether they supported the "Smokefree Generation", I suppose that's unsurprising. Were they told what that meant? 
 
We may never know. The survey is not available on the YouGov website, which doesn't seem like best practice to me. The media shouldn't give any coverage to opinion polls unless it is clear what questions have been asked.
  


Monday, 20 October 2025

The battle for the gambling levy millions

Last month the gambling journalist Zak Thomas-Akoo revealed that the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) has been changing the terms of its grant applications under pressure from anti-gambling academics and campaigners. 

Thanks to the mandatory gambling industry level, the UKRI has £10 million to distribute to anyone who wants to research "gambling and gambling-related harm". It's a huge amount of money for a niche academic area and "public health" researchers are fighting like rats in a sack to get hold of it. This is why people who have never written about gambling before have suddenly taken an interest in the topic. A slew of articles about why gambling should be treated as a "public health" issue have appeared in medical journals in the last couple of years, all of which have been characterised by ignorance about problem gambling as a psychological disorder and robotic incantations about treating it like tobacco (this is a particularly comic example). 

The UKRI doesn't give researchers much of a steer on what kind of research it wants or which specific areas it thinks need studying, but it does make some stipulations. When it created its webpage to attract researchers in June 2025, it originally said:
 

Applications must be consortia based and must bring together diverse people, institutions, expertise, experiences, places, and wider stakeholders. This includes people with lived and learned experience from gambling and gambling related harms.

By lived experience, we mean people with direct experience of gambling related harms. Partnerships with non-HEI [higher education institution] organisations and people across the third sector, community groups, industry, and the public sector are essential.

 
If you're a regular reader, you can probably guess which word triggered "public health" academics. Industry. It is one of the ten commandments of "public health" that industry does not get a seat at the table, and yet here was the UKRI saying that partnerships with industry are essential.
 
If researchers want data on how people gamble and how the sector is evolving, some co-operation with industry is clearly necessary, but the UKRI was flooded with complaints from moral busybodies. According to Thomas-Akoo, the webpage was changed three days later "to define industry far more broadly than was previously implied, meaning “any enterprise that places goods or services on a market and whose commercial activities constitute more than 20% of its annual operations.”" This means that researchers can form partnerships with all sorts of pressure groups, non-profit organisations and charities that are not part of the gambling industry and may be extremely anti-gambling. But they could do that anyway, so it seemed odd that the UKRI felt the need to change the small print like this. It looks like they were trying to appease to anti-gambling lobby, which is never easy.
 
In September, Private Eye (which repeats anything the anti-gambling coalition tells it) reported that "a group of gambling reform campaigners" had written to Peter Kyle - who was the Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology until recently - to moan about the UKRI being insufficiently ideological. The UKRI had even had the nerve to talk about "individual risk factors" for problem gambling! For shame!
 

I have now seen some of these letters (released under FOI). What they reveal above all is a sense of entitlement. The activists and academics simply assume that the only way to look at gambling is as a tobacco-adjacent commercial determinant of health and that the only suitable framework is the relatively novel, untested and ill-defined "public health" approach to "gambling harm". 
 
A letter from some unnamed academics is a case in point. They assert that the very idea of gambling "harm" being a "product of individual vulnerabilities" has been "discredited" and that because OHID and the NHS "follow a public health approach to preventing gambling harm", everybody else should do the same. 
 
OHID and the NHS are, of course, health agencies so it is hardly surprising that they have endorsed the "public health" approach, but that doesn't justify ignoring decades of research showing that problem gambling is a complex psychological disorder that is often associated with other psychological disorders and can be treated by psychologists (which is what the NHS gambling clinics actually do). The UKRI doesn't need to spend £10 million a year for a bunch of nanny state blowhards to produce "research" which concludes that gambling advertising should be banned and gamblers should be given deposit limits (which is what they mean by "upstream prevention" and "plugging policy gaps"). These people are so predictable that their studies write themselves, but they do not extend the field of human knowledge.
 
The fact is that the "public health framing" is just one way to look at the issue and not a very fruitful one. When they talk about "the structural drivers of harm at a population level", they mean the legal gambling industry. It has always been odds on that the levy money would be used by activist-academics to provide a scientific fig leaf for bone-headed prohibitions that have already been decided upon. This is Year Zero for them and it is why they want any academic who is "linked to industry" excluded. Gambling research has traditionally been funded by industry, albeit usually through arm's length bodies like GambleAware. If the academics who have done gambling research in the past - most of which is more serious and nuanced than the junk that will be produced from now on - are "excluded from bidding for funds", the new wave of ideologues can start with a clean slate. It's not about conflicts of interest, it's about getting rid of the old guard.
 
 
Who will decide who the "industry actors and their intermediaries" are? They will, of course, and over time the scope will be expanded to the point where anyone who disagrees with them becomes "industry" by definition (as had happened with smoking and vaping). 
 
The APPG on Gambling Harm wrote a letter along similar lines and using the same buzzwords. Like the academics, they assert that there is only one way to look at gambling and that is by embracing the "public health approach".
 

A common rhetorical trick used by anti-gambling campaigners these days is to portray the traditional approach of focusing on individuals as "stigmatising" while at the same time stigmatising gambling and demonising gambling companies. A typical example of this is in the APPG letter.
 

These groups are essentially trying to bully the UKRI into excluding anyone who disagrees with them by pretending that the "public health approach" is the only game in town and that treating gambling disorder as a problem for individuals is socially unacceptable.
 
The letter from Peers for Gambling Reform is more or less a carbon copy of the APPG's letter. It complains that the UKRI has "overlooked ... commercial practices and products". This is only true insofar as the UKRI doesn't specify any particular research agenda or framework, i.e. it "overlooks" everything and researchers can propose any research project they like. What really bugs their lordships is that the UKRI hasn't focused obsessively on specific games and commercial practices which supposedly have specific risks attached to them.
 

Gambling With Lives wrote a similar letter and I daresay several other people did too. This is the "swarm effect". If they repeat something often enough, they think it will become an established fact.
 
The response of the UKRI was to change its webpage again by adding a whole load of provisos and caveats. Below the passages I quoted at the top of this post, it has now added the following (emphasis mine) 
 

Partnerships with non-HEI organisations and people across the third sector, community groups, the public sector, and industry are essential and can contribute to diverse, innovative and cutting edge research, particularly in respect of the provision of industry data and commercial insights for the furtherance of research endeavours. By ‘industry’ we mean any enterprise that places goods or services on a market and whose commercial activities constitute more than 20% of its annual operations. This definition applies across all sectors and is not limited to organisations within the gambling industry. However, we absolutely recognise the sensitivities in respect of partnerships or collaboration with businesses, the gambling industry or otherwise.

That is why we are clear that any engagement with industry partners, especially those from the gambling sector, must be demonstrably independent, evidence-based, research-led, and aligned with the programme’s public interest objectives to further understanding of gambling and gambling-related harm.

Further, all proposals will be subject to robust scrutiny through our peer review and governance processes, with particular attention paid to the independence and integrity of the research, the source and independence of the findings, and the potential for real-world impact in understanding gambling behaviour and reducing gambling harms.

UKRI wishes to clarify that, as well as not being permitted to host awards, under the Research Programme on Gambling UKRI does not permit funding to be provided to Gambling Commission licence holders who are subject to the levy. We have also placed restrictions on co-funding from such organisations. Furthermore, UKRI would not expect individual researchers to concurrently hold funding from licence holders subject to the levy while receiving funding from the Research Programme on Gambling.

UKRI does not permit engagement with industries whose core business can be associated with harm to public health or societal wellbeing, in line with our ethical standards and harms-based exclusion principles.

Exceptions may be made for time-limited, purpose-specific interactions deemed essential to achieving legitimate and high-quality research objectives (for example, access to proprietary datasets or materials), provided that:

  • there is no direct funding or co-authorship from the excluded entity
  • the interaction is subject to robust ethical review and declared transparently
  • appropriate safeguards are in place to prevent undue influence, reputational risk, or conflicts of interest
  • the public benefit of the research demonstrably outweighs the risks of engagement
... Partnerships can take different forms including project partners or collaborating organisations. You must demonstrate how the partnerships within your consortium are equitable, have contributed to the development of your application including its conceptualisation, are not compromised by non-compliance with our conflict of interest policy, and will help the centre achieve its aims.

 
It's difficult to know how this will work in practice. On the face of it, it is incoherent. On the one hand, the UKRI is encouraging researchers to form partnerships with the gambling industry and it still says that whoever runs the Gambling Harms Research Coordination Centre should "ensure that the Centre includes representation from industry." On the other hand, it says that it "does not permit engagement with industries whose core business can be associated with harm to public health or societal wellbeing". But harm to public health and societal wellbeing is exactly what "public health" academics think the gambling industry is all about and since the UKRI is giving grants for people to study gambling "harm", it would seem that the UKRI thinks the same. 
 
The whole webpage is now a bit of a muddle, but since the UKRI keeps changing it every time they get an indignant letter from a wowser, that is hardly surprising.

 



Saturday, 18 October 2025

Good COP 11

The WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control Conference of the Parties (FCTC COP) will be held in Geneva next month. The media will be banned as usual so I'll be there for the Good COP conference down the road to offer a more enlightened view along with a stellar line up of experts. You can attend or watch online. Details here.



Friday, 17 October 2025

Banning cigarette filters?

Some further thoughts on this at my Substack.
 

Smokers would have to greatly overestimate the benefits of filters for a ban to provide a net benefit in public health terms, and I doubt they do. I expect most of them think they provide no protection at all. Most smokers have only ever known filtered cigarettes and they know that they are highly dangerous. In any case, making a product more dangerous in order to scare people off using it has got to be ethically questionable.

The anti-smoking lobby’s approach to this issue is all over the place. They were all in favour of the development of low tar cigarettes in the 1970s. They now say that was a mistake. Fair enough, but if it was a mistake why did they lobby for the EU to set limits on tar yields in the 1990s and then fight to lower those limits in the 2000s? They then successfully lobbied the EU to ban tobacco companies from putting the tar and nicotine content on packs because this information was (supposedly) misleading. Which is it? Either all cigarettes are as bad as each other, in which case get rid of the limits on tar and nicotine, or low tar cigarettes are safer than high tar cigarettes, in which case consumers should be informed.

Their current position seems to be that all cigarettes are as bad as each other and that filters should be banned because they give the opposite impression. If so, the EU’s limits on tar and nicotine serve no purpose and should be abolished. Indeed, they will have to be abolished if filters are banned because there is no such thing as a low-tar unfiltered cigarette. This is an issue that the authors of the Addiction article, who include ASH’s Hazel Cheeseman, never address. They can’t be dumb enough to think that the EU will accidentally ban cigarettes by banning filters and leaving the tar limits in place so they must think - if they have thought about it at all - that the EU will allow high tar cigarettes to be sold again. That would be fine with me. It’s just be a bit surprising that it’s also fine with an anti-smoking group.

 



Tuesday, 14 October 2025

Prohibitionists for human rights!

Not a spoof

 
Tobacco Control has published an hilarious article by a lawyer from ASH (USA) and a social scientist from Mike Bloomberg's Tobacco Control Research Group (Bath University). It is titled Tobacco control advocates as human rights defenders: a call for recognition. and is every bit as ridiculous as it sounds. 
  

Tobacco control advocacy is not without risks. Increasingly, advocates have spoken out about the threats, harassment and attacks they face when confronting powerful corporate interests.

 
This "harassment" mostly consists being called things like 'nicotine Nazis', 'health fascists' and 'killjoys'. It turns out that if you stigmatise people, extort money from them through sin taxes and ruin their social lives, they will dislike you. Who knew? And yet, despite working tirelessly to make the lives of nicotine users miserable, I have never heard of any anti-smoking campaigner in the modern era being physically attacked by a smoker. When you think about it, that is quite remarkable. 
 

This commentary argues that tobacco control advocates should be recognised as human rights defenders (HRDs) under international frameworks.  

 
Hahaha! 
 

The Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights (OHCHR) defines HRDs as individuals who, individually or with others, act to promote or protect human rights in a peaceful manner.

 
You know who isn't defined as a human rights defender? Ambulance-chasing lawyers and pointless academics who sit around on fat salaries thinking up ways to take away people's right to enjoy themselves. There are lots of names for people like that but 'human rights defender' is definitely not one of them.
 

This definition is based on actions, not positions or titles. By this standard, tobacco control advocates—who work to protect and advance the right to health (and other rights) and challenge harmful corporate practices—clearly fall within the scope of HRDs.

 
Anti-smoking lobbyists do not advance the right to health. Insofar as not smoking is synonymous with health, people can choose to do it or choose not to do it. Having the right to something does not mean that a person should be compelled by others to maximise it at the expense of everything else they hold dear. People have the right to a family life but that doesn't mean they should be forced to have children. 
 
What difference would it make if we go along with this gaslighting and pretend that prohibitionists are champions of human rights?
 

... much of the practical, frontline support for HRDs comes from civil society. For example, a civil society-led initiative based in Europe offers a variety of support mechanisms, including a hotline for urgent protection and visits in detention. 

 
The initiative they are referring to has been supporting women living in Afghanistan under the Taliban and libertarians fighting political oppression in Georgia. Surely even the most deluded 'tobacco control' nutter can see that the plight of these people has nothing in common with single-issue campaigners being called nanny statists on Facebook? 
 

Tobacco control has always been about defending the right to health, life, and dignity. 

 
No, it has always been a prohibitionist crusade run by neurotics, bigots and grifters. As the campaign against e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches shows, it was never really about health and it certainly isn't about dignity.  
 

 A moral crusade explicitly grounded in 'denormalisation' was never going to advance human dignity.
 

Yet the advocates who lead this work often face threats without the recognition or protection afforded to other defenders of human rights. 

 
The authors helpfully link to a website that might otherwise have escaped me. Paid for by two of Bloomberg's front groups, Courage Against Tobacco tells the heart-rending stories of brave of anti-smoking careerists who have suffered at the hands of the tobacco industry. The 'tobacco industry' is very broadly defined, including not just companies who make and sell tobacco products but also "all related corporate entities connected to tobacco manufacturing companies", "research institutions accepting tobacco funding", "third-party allies" and "lobbyists advancing industry positions". And, as if that were not enough, it also includes: 
 
  • Organizations promoting "reduced-harm" products while opposing evidence-based measures aligned with the WHO FCTC
  • Entities that consistently advance tobacco industry policy positions 
 
In other words, it includes literally everybody who disagrees with them. 

The website tells the story of a French anti-smoking campaigner who was "allegedly insulted online" by somebody from an organisation called 'Angry Tobacconists'. It tells the tale of ASH Scotland's Sheila Duffy being called a "health Nazi" by FOREST and of a former Detective Chief Inspector threatening to take her to court over something (the details are not clear). And we hear about some anti-smoking activist in southeast Asia who received a 36 page letter of complaint from somebody who is apparently vaguely connected to the tobacco industry.

It certainly puts the situation in Gaza and Ukraine into perspective, doesn't it? Nobody has ever suffered like a professional tobacco control lobbyist has suffered - and all to protect human rights! (i.e. their right to tell other people how to live their lives.)
 

Recognising tobacco control advocates as HRDs is not symbolic—it is a necessary step to close a serious protection gap. It would align the field more explicitly with global justice efforts, unlock underused legal and institutional resources...

 
And there we have it. Is that the sound of a cash register I can hear? 
 

... and send a clear message that defending health is defending human rights. As pressure from commercial actors intensifies, the global tobacco control community must act—not only to advance policy, but to safeguard those advancing it.

 
These people are deluded beyond belief. Clive Bates puts it well in a rapid response...
 

Tobacco control advocates are not defending human rights, but rather promoting controls and limitations on the rights of others. The threats to the safety of tobacco control activists are minimal in practice, but the threats to millions of others from adopting a prohibitionist, war-on-drugs posture towards safer forms of nicotine are significant.

 

 


Monday, 13 October 2025

Towards prohibition

I was spoke to Brent Stafford at Regulator Watch when I was at the Global Nicotine Forum in June. We discussed vaping, prohibition and why things will get worse before they get better. Here's the video.



Thursday, 9 October 2025

Has the ultra-processed food panic peaked?

 

Remember Joe Wicks, the chirpy gym bunny whose YouTube channel got children exercising during lockdown? He was quite famous in the spring of 2020 but was rather less famous five years later. In 2021, at the peak of its success, Joe Wicks Ltd. had £2,181,299 in the bank. By 2024, it had just £78,758. 

Whether the fading fame and fortune of Mr Wicks had anything to do with his decision to get onboard the bandwagon against ultra-processed food (UPF), we may never know, but it has certainly got him back on prime time TV. He has been on the breakfast sofa with Ed Balls and Susanna Reid, and viewers were treated to a whole hour of him on Channel 4 this week (Joe Wicks: Licensed to Kill). His promotional device is the “Killer” protein bar which he has created and is portraying as “the most dangerous health bar” ever. It supposedly causes cancer, stroke and heart disease — and yet it is legal! Why won’t the government do something?!

Inevitably, the documentary involves Wicks going on a poorly scripted “journey” to discover the truth about what is really going on in our food environment, blah, blah, blah. Equally inevitably, his tutelage leans heavily on the opinions of Chris van Tulleken who has recently been made a professor and is beginning to look as crazy as he sounds. For cinematic reasons, van Tulleken is portrayed as living in a dimly lit, underground laboratory surrounded by bottles of dangerous chemicals. The vibe is that of a strange but brilliant scientist who has accidentally unleashed the zombie apocalypse and is humanity’s only hope of ending it. Once Wicks gets to work manufacturing his unhealthy snack, van Tulleken occasionally surfaces with an intense stare, urging his youngish protégé to see it through to the end.

Read the rest at The Critic